ORIGINAL PAPER
Evolution analysis of the global lithium industrial chain trade network: based on the event-shock complex network method
1
Development and Research Center of China Geological Survey
Submission date: 2026-05-02
Final revision date: 2026-06-08
Acceptance date: 2026-06-14
Publication date: 2026-09-28
Gospodarka Surowcami Mineralnymi – Mineral Resources Management 2026;42(3):173-194
KEYWORDS
TOPICS
ABSTRACT
Lithium has become a driving force of the new energy revolution, a crucial option for the international community to jointly advance ecological civilization construction, and one of the fundamental resources for achieving carbon neutrality. Its industrial chain trade exerts a significant impact on the global economy. To further explore the patterns and characteristics of international trade in products across all stages of the lithium industrial chain, this paper adopts a full-industry-chain perspective. It applies the complex network method with Event Impact Factor to analyze the evolution of trade patterns in the upstream, midstream and downstream sectors, and constructs trade network indicators to examine the overall and individual nodal characteristics of the network. The research findings indicate that: The international trade of the lithium industrial chain presents distinct trends of decentralization, centralization and polarization transfer in the upstream, midstream and downstream respectively. Upstream trade is primarily affected by industrial technological upgrading and geopolitics, while midstream and downstream trade is mainly shaped by national strategic planning, industrial development and geographical advantages. Countries in the lithium trade network maintain close ties. While network connectivity and efficiency keep rising, blocization remains prominent. Finally, targeted policy recommendations are proposed to enhance the resilience of the entire lithium industrial chain, including improving global governance of the lithium trade network, promoting diversified trade strategies for the global lithium industrial chain, and establishing a global trade early warning and emergency response mechanism.
CONFLICT OF INTEREST
The Authors have no conflict of interest to declare.
METADATA IN OTHER LANGUAGES:
Polish
Analiza ewolucji globalnej sieci handlowej łańcucha przemysłowego litowego w oparciu o metodę sieci złożonych opartych na zdarzeniach i wstrząsach
handel produktami litowymi, pełny łańcuch przemysłowy, złożona sieć podlegająca wpływom zdarzeń i wstrząsów, ewolucja sieci
Lit stał się siłą napędową rewolucji w dziedzinie nowych źródeł energii, kluczowym rozwiązaniem dla społeczności międzynarodowej w zakresie wspólnego budowania cywilizacji ekologicznej oraz jednym z podstawowych zasobów niezbędnych do osiągnięcia neutralności węglowej. Handel w ramach łańcucha przemysłowego litu wywiera znaczący wpływ na gospodarkę światową. Aby dokładniej zbadać wzorce i cechy charakterystyczne handlu międzynarodowego produktami na wszystkich etapach łańcucha przemysłowego litu, w niniejszym artykule przyjęto perspektywę obejmującą cały łańcuch przemysłowy. Wykorzystano metodę sieci złożonych z uwzględnieniem wskaźnika wpływu zdarzeń (Event Impact Factor) do analizy ewolucji wzorców handlu w sektorach górnym, środkowym i dolnym łańcucha przemysłowego oraz skonstruowano wskaźniki sieci handlowej w celu zbadania ogólnych i indywidualnych cech węzłów sieci. Wyniki badań wskazują, że: międzynarodowy handel w łańcuchu przemysłowym litu wykazuje wyraźne tendencje do decentralizacji, centralizacji i przenoszenia polaryzacji odpowiednio w sektorach upstream, midstream i downstream. Na handel w sektorze upstream wpływają przede wszystkim modernizacja technologiczna przemysłu oraz uwarunkowania geopolityczne, natomiast handel w sektorach midstream i downstream kształtowany jest głównie przez krajowe planowanie strategiczne, rozwój przemysłowy oraz przewagi geograficzne. Kraje w sieci handlu litem utrzymują bliskie powiązania. Chociaż łączność i efektywność sieci stale rosną, nadal wyraźnie widoczne jest tworzenie się bloków. Na koniec przedstawiono konkretne zalecenia dotyczące polityki, mające na celu zwiększenie odporności całego łańcucha przemysłowego litowego, w tym poprawę globalnego zarządzania siecią handlu litem, promowanie zróżnicowanych strategii handlowych dla globalnego łańcucha przemysłowego litowego oraz ustanowienie globalnego mechanizmu wczesnego ostrzegania i reagowania kryzysowego w handlu.
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