ORIGINAL PAPER
An investigation of the effects of moderator variables on the lower heating value estimation of lignite deposits in Turkey
1
Eskişehir Osmangazi University
Submission date: 2023-02-23
Final revision date: 2023-05-08
Acceptance date: 2023-05-19
Publication date: 2023-09-22
Gospodarka Surowcami Mineralnymi – Mineral Resources Management 2023;39(3):199-216
KEYWORDS
TOPICS
ABSTRACT
Turkey has 19.3 billion tons of lignite reserves and the vast majority of these Neogene lignite deposits are preferred for use in thermal power plants due to their low calorific value. The calorific value of lignite used in thermal power plants for electricity generation must be kept under constant control. In the control of calorific value, the estimation of the lower and higher heating values (LHV and HHV) of lignite is of great importance. In the literature, there are many studies that establish a relationship between the heating values of coal and proximate and ultimate analysis variables. In the studies dealing with proximate analysis data, it is observed that although the coefficients of the obtained multiple linear regression models (MRM) are statistically insignificant, these models are used to predict heating values because of the meaningful correlation coefficient. In this study, it is investigated whether moderator variables are effective on LHV estimation with proximate analysis data collected from forty-one lignite basins in different regions of Turkey, and a moderator variable analysis (MVA) model is developed to be used for the prediction of LHV. As a result of the study, it is found that the proposed MVA model is in accordance with observation values (coefficient of determination R2 = 0.951), and absolute and standard errors are also small. Therefore, it is concluded that the use of MVA to estimate the LHV of Turkey’s lignite is found to be more statistically meaningful.
METADATA IN OTHER LANGUAGES:
Polish
Badanie wpływu zmiennych moderatora na szacowanie wartości opałowej złóż węgla brunatnego w Turcji
węgiel brunatny, wartość opałowa, wielokrotna regresja liniowa, analiza moderatora, analiza techniczna
Turcja posiada 19,3 mld ton zasobów węgla brunatnego, a zdecydowana większość tych neogeńskich złóż węgla brunatnego jest preferowana do wykorzystania w elektrowniach cieplnych ze względu na ich niską wartość opałową. Wartość opałowa węgla brunatnego wykorzystywanego w elektrowniach ciepłowniczych do produkcji energii elektrycznej musi być stale kontrolowana. W procesie kontroli wartości opałowej bardzo ważne jest oszacowanie wartości opałowej i ciepła spalania węgla brunatnego. W literaturze istnieje wiele badań, które ustalają związek między wartościami opałowymi węgla a zmiennymi analizy przybliżonej (technicznej) i końcowej. W badaniach dotyczących danych analizy technicznej zaobserwowano, że chociaż współczynniki uzyskanych modeli wielokrotnej regresji liniowej (MRM) są statystycznie nieistotne, modele te są wykorzystywane do przewidywania wartości opałowych ze względu na znaczący współczynnik korelacji. W niniejszym artykule zbadano, czy zmienne moderatora są skuteczne w szacowaniu wartości opałowej (LHV) na podstawie danych z analizy technicznej zebranych z czterdziestu jeden zagłębi węgla brunatnego w różnych regionach Turcji, a także opracowano model analizy zmiennych moderatora (MVA), który ma być wykorzystywany do przewidywania LHV. W wyniku badań stwierdzono, że proponowany model MVA jest zgodny z wartościami obserwacji (współczynnik determinacji R2 = 0,951), a błędy bezwzględne i standardowe są również niewielkie. W związku z tym stwierdzono, że wykorzystanie MVA do oszacowania LHV tureckiego węgla brunatnego jest statystycznie uzasadnione.
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