ORIGINAL PAPER
Assessment of China’s Nickel Resource Supply Security Based on the CRITIC-TOPSIS Model
1
Development and Research Center of China Geological Survey
2
Chinese Academy of Natural Resources Economics
Submission date: 2025-02-05
Final revision date: 2025-02-13
Acceptance date: 2025-06-29
Publication date: 2026-02-18
Gospodarka Surowcami Mineralnymi – Mineral Resources Management 2026;42(1):93-117
KEYWORDS
TOPICS
ABSTRACT
With the accelerated development of the new energy vehicle industry, China’s demand for nickel resources has been increasing, and its external dependence has remained high for a long time. In the context of the new international development pattern and security environment, it is essential to systematically evaluate the security of China’s nickel ore resource supply. Based on China’s new development background and situational requirements, this paper constructs an evaluation index system for nickel resource supply security from three dimensions: global supply stability, domestic economic security, and co-existence of optimal, from the perspectives of national resource security and sustainable development, combined with the characteristics of nickel resources. The CRITIC-TOPSIS model is adopted to evaluate the level of secure nickel resource supply from 2011 to 2022. The construction of the evaluation index system for nickel resource supply security has been proven scientifically reasonable, the method used is relatively appropriate, and the evaluation results are credible. The results indicate that China’s nickel resource supply capacity has generally declined since 2011, with the main influencing factors being domestic resource supply potential, global geopolitical risks, and nickel ore market price fluctuations. Therefore, it is imperative to enhance domestic nickel resource exploration efforts, increase overseas mining investments in nickel resources, improve China’s global allocation of nickel resources, and elevate nickel resource reserve capabilities and smelting and production technologies.
FUNDING
This study was funded by Geological Survey Project of China.
CONFLICT OF INTEREST
The Authors have no conflict of interest to declare.
METADATA IN OTHER LANGUAGES:
Polish
Ocena bezpieczeństwa dostaw niklu w Chinach w oparciu o model CRITIC-TOPSIS
zasoby niklu, bezpieczeństwo dostaw, model CRITIC-TOPSIS, system indeksów oceny, zrównoważony rozwój
Wraz z przyspieszonym rozwojem przemysłu nowych pojazdów elektrycznych popyt Chin na zasoby niklu rośnie, a ich zależność od dostawców zewnętrznych utrzymuje się na wysokim poziomie od dłuższego czasu. W kontekście nowego wzorca rozwoju międzynarodowego i bezpieczeństwa środowiska niezbędna jest systematyczna ocena zabezpieczenia dostaw rudy niklu w Chinach. W oparciu o nowe uwarunkowania rozwojowe Chin i wymagania sytuacyjne niniejszy artykuł konstruuje system indeksów oceny bezpieczeństwa dostaw niklu w trzech wymiarach: globalnej stabilności dostaw, krajowego bezpieczeństwa gospodarczego oraz współistnienia warunków optymalnych z perspektywy krajowego bezpieczeństwa zasobów i zrównoważonego rozwoju, w połączeniu z charakterystyką zasobów niklu. Model CRITIC-TOPSIS został przyjęty do oceny poziomu bezpieczeństwa dostaw niklu w latach 2011–2022. Konstrukcja systemu indeksów oceny bezpieczeństwa dostaw niklu została naukowo udowodniona, zastosowana metoda jest stosunkowo odpowiednia, a wyniki oceny są wiarygodne. Wyniki wskazują, że potencjał Chin w zakresie zasobów niklu generalnie spadł od 2011 roku, a głównymi czynnikami wpływającymi na niego są krajowy potencjał podaży, globalne zagrożenia geopolityczne oraz wahania cen na rynku rudy niklu. Dlatego konieczne jest zintensyfikowanie krajowych działań w zakresie eksploracji zasobów niklu, zwiększenie zagranicznych inwestycji w górnictwo niklu, poprawa globalnej alokacji zasobów niklu przez Chiny oraz zwiększenie potencjału rezerw niklu oraz technologii wytopu i produkcji.
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