ORIGINAL PAPER
Game-theory based reasoning as a tool for selecting exploitation sections taking into account natural risk hazards on the example of preparatory works in a copper ore mine
1
AGH University of Krakow
2
KGHM Polska Miedź SA, O/ZG Polkowice-Sieroszowice
These authors had equal contribution to this work
Submission date: 2024-10-22
Final revision date: 2025-01-27
Acceptance date: 2025-04-08
Publication date: 2025-06-10
Gospodarka Surowcami Mineralnymi – Mineral Resources Management 2025;41(2):5-30
KEYWORDS
TOPICS
Optimization of resources and reserves managementEffective mineral deposits exploitationPreparation and processing of mineral raw materials
ABSTRACT
The paper presents non-standard decision-making methods for selecting exploitation parcels, based on the natural hazards risk assessment in a copper ore mine. Based on diversified quality characteristics of the ore in four preparatory sections, the possible revenues were estimated using the NSR formula. The obtained revenues were compared with the probability of natural hazards occurring including gas outbursts, sudden inflows of water into the workings, outflow of water and/or sand water in the workings, disappearance or reduction of the deposit in the elevation zone, disappearance of the deposit in oxidized Rote Fäule zone, simultaneous disappearance of the deposit in the elevation zone and oxidized zone. It was assumed that a possible natural hazard would affect the level of income achieved, according to the probability of its occurrence and its type, and the theoretical decision-making model would explain and justify the selection of the safest exploitation sections. Utilizing the risk matrix, the possible effects of the emergence of hazards and their consequences from the standpoint of occupational safety and safety in terms of maintaining the continuity and profitability of mining operations were assessed qualitatively on a five-point scale. The quantitative measures obtained in this way were proposed as payoff amounts in two-player non-zero-sum games. The game solutions enabled to establish the hypothetical hierarchy of exploitation sections in relation to the above-mentioned safety criteria, indicating the optimal strategy for the exploitation front.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
We would like to warmly thank the reviewers for their effort and thoughtful feedback on our manuscript. Constructive remarks have been very helpful and improved the quality of the paper.
FUNDING
This research and paper preparation was funded by AGH University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Geology, Geophysics and Environment Protection; subsidy number: 16.16.140.315.
CONFLICT OF INTEREST
The Authors have no conflict of interest to declare.
METADATA IN OTHER LANGUAGES:
Polish
Wnioskowanie teoriogrowe jako narzędzie wyboru parcel eksploatacyjnych z uwzględnieniem ryzyka wystąpienia zagrożeń naturalnych na przykładzie robót przygotowawczych w kopalni rud miedzi
ograniczanie ryzyka, zagrożenia naturalne w górnictwie, macierz ryzyka, gry dwuosobowe o sumie niezerowej, wypłata
W artykule zaproponowano niestandardowe metody decyzyjne wyboru parcel eksploatacyjnych w odniesieniu do oceny ryzyka wystąpienia zagrożeń naturalnych w kopalni rud miedzi. W oparciu o zróżnicowaną, realną charakterystykę jakościową rudy w czterech parcelach przygotowawczych, oszacowano możliwe do uzyskania przychody z wykorzystaniem formuły sprzedażnej NSR. Uzyskane przychody konfrontowano z prawdopodobieństwami wystąpienia zagrożeń naturalnych obejmujących: wyrzuty gazów, nagłe dopływy wody do wyrobisk, wypływ wody i/lub kurzawki w wyrobiskach, zanik lub redukcję złoża w strefie elewacji, zanik złoża w strefie utlenionej Rote Fäule, zanik złoża w strefie elewacji i utlenionej jednocześnie. Przyjęto, że możliwe zagrożenie wpływać będzie na poziom osiąganego przychodu, stosownie do prawdopodobieństwa wystąpienia i rodzaju zagrożenia, a teoretyczny model decyzyjny objaśniał i uzasadniał wybór najbezpieczniejszej parceli. W oparciu o macierze ryzyka oceniono jakościowo w pięciostopniowej skali możliwe skutki ujawnienia się zagrożeń oraz ich konsekwencje z punktu widzenia bezpieczeństwa pracy jak i bezpieczeństwa w kontekście zachowania ciągłości i opłacalności wydobycia. Uzyskane w ten sposób miary ilościowe zostały zaproponowane jako wielkości wypłat w dwuosobowych grach o sumie niezerowej. Rozwiązania gier umożliwiły hipotetyczną hierarchizację parcel eksploatacyjnych w odniesieniu do wspomnianych kryteriów bezpieczeństwa, wskazując na optymalny dobór parcel kierowanych do eksploatacji.
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| eISSN: | 2299-2324 |
| ISSN: | 0860-0953 |
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