Risk evaluation method based on set pair analysis applied to overseas mining investment
1
University of Science & Technology Beijing
Gospodarka Surowcami Mineralnymi – Mineral Resources Management 2018;34(4):145-164
KEYWORDS
set pair analysisrisk evaluation5-element connection numberset pair potentialadjacent connection number
ABSTRACT
Overseas mining investment generally faces considerable risk due to a variety of complex risk factors. Therefore, indexes are often based on conditions of uncertainty and cannot be fully quantified. Guided by set pair analysis (SPA) theory, this study constructs a risk evaluation index system based on an analysis of the risk factors of overseas mining investment and determines the weights of factors using entropy weighting methods. In addition, this study constructs an identity-discrepancy-contrary risk assessment model based on the 5-element connection number. Both the certainty and uncertainty of the various risks are treated uniformly in this model and it is possible to mathematically describe and quantitatively express complex system decisions to evaluate projects. Overseas mining investment risk and its changing trends are synthetically evaluated by calculating the adjacent connection number and analyzing the set pair potential. Using an actual overseas mining investment project as an example, the risk of overseas mining investment can be separated into five categories according to the risk field, and then the evaluation model is quantified and specific risk assessment results are obtained. Compared to the field investigation, the practicability and effectiveness of the evaluation method are illustrated. This new model combines static and dynamic factors and qualitative and quantitative information, which improves the reliability and accuracy of risk evaluation. Furthermore, this evaluation method can also be applied to other similar evaluations and has a certain scalability.
METADATA IN OTHER LANGUAGES:
Polish
Metoda oceny ryzyka oparta na analizie par zbiorów w stosowaniu w zagranicznych inwestycjach wydobywczych
analiza zestawów par, ocena ryzyka, powiązanie 5 elementów, sąsiedni element połączenia
Zagraniczne inwestycje wydobywcze są narażone na znaczne ryzyko z powodu różnych czynników mających wpływ na taką działalność. Stosowane wskaźniki często zawierają elementy niepewności i nie można ich w pełni skwantyfikować. Kierując się teorią analizy par (set par analysis), badanie to tworzy system indeksu oceny ryzyka oparty na analizie czynników ryzyka zagranicznych inwestycji górniczych i określa wagi czynników z zastosowaniem entropii. Ponadto w artykule przedstawiono model oceny ryzyka związanego z identyfikacją rozbieżności, oparty na powiązaniu pięciu elementów. Zarówno pewność, jak i niepewność różnych ryzyk są traktowane jednolicie w tym modelu i możliwe jest matematyczne opisanie i ilościowe wyrażenie złożonych decyzji systemowych w celu oceny projektów. Ryzyko inwestycji zagranicznych i ich zmieniające się trendy są oceniane syntetycznie poprzez obliczanie sąsiedniego elementu i analizowanie ustalonego potencjału dla tej pary. Przykładem może być faktyczny zagraniczny projekt inwestycyjny dotyczący górnictwa, gdzie ryzyko inwestycji zagranicznych można podzielić na pięć rodzajów zgodnie z rachunkiem ryzyka, a następnie dokonuje się oceny modelu i uzyskuje się konkretne wyniki oceny ryzyka. Na przykładzie przedstawiono aspekty praktyczne i skuteczność tej metody oceny. Ten nowy model łączy czynniki statyczne i dynamiczne oraz informacje jakościowe i ilościowe, co poprawia wiarygodność i dokładność oceny ryzyka. Co więcej, ta metoda oceny może być również zastosowana do innych podobnych zagadnień i ma pewną skalowalność.
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