ORIGINAL PAPER
The impact of selected factors and access to mineral resources on the development of wind energy in Poland
1
Silesian University of Technology
Submission date: 2023-09-03
Final revision date: 2024-01-09
Acceptance date: 2024-02-18
Publication date: 2024-03-27
Gospodarka Surowcami Mineralnymi – Mineral Resources Management 2024;40(1):187-212
KEYWORDS
TOPICS
Rational and efficient development and utilization of mineral resourcesRational use of mineral raw materials
ABSTRACT
This article presents the results of research on the importance of access to critical raw materials for the development of wind energy in Poland. The authors have built a set of factors that can potentially influence this development. Twenty-four explanatory variables were taken into account, which were assigned to five categories. The amount of demand for mineral resources related to the development of wind technology was determined using a computer programwritten by the authors. The importance of individual factors was verified using the ARMAX model. As a result of this, it was possible to identify the explanatory variables that significantly affect the volume of wind energy production in Poland. The group of mineral resources includes critical metals that are necessary for the production of wind turbines. These are rare earth elements, copper, nickel, boron and manganese. The ARMAX model enables the examination of the relationship between the explained variable and the explanatory variables. Optimization of the model parameters was performed by limiting the mean square error. During the validation of the model, the VIF (variance inflation factor), Dickey-Fuller and Doornik-Hansen tests were used. The ARMAX validation also consisted of selecting the model characterized by the lowest value of information criteria and determining ex post errors, including the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). In addition, the nature of individual independent variables was determined, i.e. whether they were stimulants, nominants, or destimulants. The forecast made it possible to verify the possibility of meeting the assumptions of the Polish Energy Policy until 2040. It showed that if the development trends of the factors that affect wind energy do not change, it would be possible to meet the assumptions of PEP2040 regarding the dynamic development of wind farms in Poland and double the generation capacity by 2030. Analysis using the ARMAX model showed that access to raw materials such as REE, Cu, Ni, Br and Mn would have a very significant impact on the development of wind energy in Poland. Each factor of the raw material category that was introduced into the model was considered statistically significant at the significance level of α = 0.01, i.e. at the lowest acceptable risk of error. Therefore, the raw material base would be of key importance to ensure access to wind energy at the level adopted in PEP2040.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The research leading to these results has received funding from the Norway Grants 2014–2021 via the National Centre for Research and Development. Grant number NOR/SGS/MOHMARER/0284/2020-00
METADATA IN OTHER LANGUAGES:
Polish
Wpływ wybranych czynników i dostępu do surowców mineralnych na rozwój energetyki wiatrowej w Polsce
energia wiatrowa, model ARMAX, prognozowanie, metale ziem rzadkich
W artykule zaprezentowano wyniki badań dotyczących znaczenia dostępu do surowców krytycznych dla rozwoju energetyki wiatrowej w Polsce. Autorzy zbudowali zbiór czynników, które potencjalnie mogą wpływać na ten rozwój. Pod uwagę wzięto 24 zmienne objaśniające, które przyporządkowano do pięciu kategorii. Wielkość zapotrzebowania na surowce mineralne w danym roku związane z rozbudową technologii wiatrowej wyznaczono z wykorzystaniem programu napisanego przez autorów. Znaczenie poszczególnych czynników zostało zweryfikowane z wykorzystaniem modelu ARMAX. Dzięki temu możliwe było wskazanie tych zmiennych objaśniających, które istotnie wpływają na wielkość produkcji energetyki wiatrowej w Polsce. Do grupy surowców mineralnych zaliczono metale krytyczne, które są niezbędne do wytwarzania turbin wiatrowych. Są to pierwiastki ziem rzadkich, miedź, nikiel, bor, mangan. Model ARMAX pozwala na zbadanie związku zmiennej objaśnianej ze zmiennymi objaśniającymi. Optymalizacja parametrów modelu była prowadzona na drodze ograniczania wielkości błędu średniokwadratowego. Podczas walidacji modelu posłużono się współczynnikiem VIF – variance inflation factor, testami Dickeya-Fullera oraz Doornika-Hansena. Walidacja ARMAX polegała także na wyborze modelu, których charakteryzuje najniższa wartość kryteriów informacyjnych oraz na wyznaczeniu błędów ex post między innymi błędu Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). Dodatkowo określono charakter poszczególnych zmiennych niezależnych, czyli ustalono czy są one stymulantami, nominantami, czy destymulantami. Wykonana prognoza umożliwiła zweryfikowanie możliwości spełnienia założeń Polityki Energetycznej Polski do 2040 roku. Prognoza wykazała, że jeśli nie zmienią się trendy rozwojowe czynników wpływających na energetykę wiatrową, możliwe będzie spełnienie założeń PEP2040 dotyczących dynamicznego rozwoju farm wiatrowych w Polsce i podwojenia mocy wytwórczych do 2030 roku. Analiza z wykorzystaniem modelu ARMAX pokazała, że dostęp do surowców takich jak REE, Cu, Ni, Br i Mn będzie miał bardzo istotny wpływ na rozwój energetyki wiatrowej w Polsce. Każdy czynnik kategorii surowców wprowadzony do modelu uznano za istotny statystycznie na poziomie istotności α = 0,01, czyli przy najniższym akceptowalnym ryzyku popełnienia błędu. Dlatego baza surowcowa będzie kluczowa dla zapewnienia dostępu do energetyki wiatrowej na poziomie przyjętym w PEP2040.
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