Forecasting the price of uranium based on the costs of uranium deposits exploitation
1
Mineral and Energy Economy Research Institute, PAS, Krakow, Poland
Gospodarka Surowcami Mineralnymi – Mineral Resources Management 2016;32(3):93-109
KEYWORDS
ABSTRACT
The paper presents the concept of forecasting uranium prices on the basis of the uranium deposits exploitation costs. The model for estimating the costs of raw material extraction over time, depending on the supply level sufficient to meet the demand from nuclear power plants, has been developed. The aforementioned costs, given the inelastic demand for uranium, determine the price of this raw material. This allows estimating the future price of uranium on the basis of knowledge of the resource base and the relationships determining changes in parameters characterizing the resources. As these estimates are affected by considerable uncertainty, the study has used a stochastic approach, constructing the precise probability distributions of uncertain parameters. Based on literature analysis, the variables that are correlated with each other have been identified. The model has implemented the identified correlations between variables. A number of assumptions regarding the input data, model limitations, and the relationship between the variables has been adopted. On the basis of the Monte Carlo simulation, the probability distribution of uranium prices in the coming years until 2050 has been obtained. According to the obtained estimation, uranium prices will remain stable at around 90 USD/kg by 2030. The prices are expected to increase in the next years. It can be assumed that this trend will grow in the future. In 2050, the expected uranium price will be about 130 USD/kg.
METADATA IN OTHER LANGUAGES:
Polish
Prognozowanie ceny uranu na podstawie kosztów eksploatacji złóż rudy uranowej
cena uranu, popyt, podaż, złoża uranu, prognoza, metoda Monte Carlo
W artykule przedstawiono koncepcję prognozowania cen uranu bazującą na kosztach eksploatacji rudy uranowej. Zbudowano model szacowania kosztów wydobycia surowca w czasie w zależności od wielkości podaży będącej odpowiedzią na popyt zgłaszany przez elektrownie jądrowe. Koszty te, przy sztywnym popycie na uran, determinują cenę tego surowca. Pozwala to szacować przyszłe ceny uranu na podstawie wiedzy o bazie zasobowej surowca oraz relacjach warunkujących zmianę parametrów opisujących zasoby. Szacunki takie obarczone są dużą niepewnością, dlatego w badaniach wykorzystano podejście stochastyczne, konstruując rozkłady prawdopodobieństwa wartości niepewnych parametrów. Na podstawie analizy literatury zidentyfikowano zmienne, których wartości są ze sobą skorelowane. W modelu zaimplementowano zidentyfikowane korelacje pomiędzy zmiennymi. Przyjęto szereg założeń dotyczących danych wejściowych, ograniczeń modelu i relacji między zmiennymi. Na podstawie symulacji modelu metodą Monte Carlo uzyskano rozkłady prawdopodobieństwa cen uranu w kolejnych latach aż do 2050 roku. Według uzyskanej prognozy ceny uranu do 2030 roku będą utrzymywały się na stałym poziomie wynoszącym około 90 USD/kg uranu. W kolejnych latach nastąpi wzrost cen, który z czasem będzie przybierał na sile. W 2050 roku oczekiwana wartość ceny uranu wyniesie około 130 USD/kg uranu.
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