ORIGINAL PAPER
A decomposition analysis of primary energy consumption and economic transition: the case of Poland
1
Mineral and Energy Economy Research Institute of the Polish Academy of Sciences
Submission date: 2023-10-12
Final revision date: 2023-10-26
Acceptance date: 2023-11-06
Publication date: 2023-12-13
Corresponding author
Przemysław Kaszyński
Mineral and Energy Economy Research Institute of the Polish Academy of Sciences
Mineral and Energy Economy Research Institute of the Polish Academy of Sciences
Gospodarka Surowcami Mineralnymi – Mineral Resources Management 2023;39(4):67-84
KEYWORDS
TOPICS
ABSTRACT
Primary energy consumption depends on the size of the economy and its structure, including both industrial and service sectors, characterized by different energy demands. Some of the basic energy and economic indicators that can be used to analyze primary energy consumption include energy intensity, energy productivity and indicators measuring the activity of the economy (gross domestic product or gross value added). In the years 1995–2021, the Polish economy developed at a relatively constant pace, and the value of gross domestic product increased in real terms by almost 290% over the entire analyzed period. However, despite this increase, total primary energy consumption remained at the relatively constant level of around 3,800–4,600 PJ/year. This was caused by, among other factors, an increase in energy productivity on the one hand and a reduction in energy intensity on the other.
It should be emphasized that a descriptive analysis of changes in primary energy consumption in Poland in the analyzed period, including changes in selected energy and economic indicators, does not allow the identification and quantification of the impact of all key factors on the total change of the examined value over time.
In this context, the main aim of the research presented in this paper is to propose a decomposition model of primary energy consumption in Poland and adapt it to conduct analyses covering the period of economic and energy transition to quantitatively determine the impact of the identified factors on the total change in primary energy consumption in the 1995–2021 period.
To perform the described research, decomposition analysis was applied, including a multiplicative and additive approach. A decomposition model was developed based on the formulated decomposition identity. Mathematical formulas of two methods were used to perform the calculations: a generalized Fisher index and the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI). The obtained results indicate that the effects of demand and energy intensity factors had the most significant impact on the primary energy consumption change.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
This work was carried out as part of the statutory research activity of the Mineral and Energy Economy Research Institute of the Polish Academy of Sciences.
METADATA IN OTHER LANGUAGES:
Polish
Analiza dekompozycyjna zużycia energii pierwotnej w Polsce w okresie transformacji gospodarczej
zużycie energii, energia pierwotna, transformacja energetyczna, analiza dekompozycyjna
Zużycie energii pierwotnej w danym kraju jest związane z wielkością gospodarki oraz jej strukturą, obejmującą zarówno sektory przemysłowe, jak i usługowe, które charakteryzują się inną intensywnością użytkowania energii. Jednymi z podstawowych wskaźników, które mogą być wykorzystane do analizy zużycia energii pierwotnej, są m.in. wskaźnik energochłonności, produktywności oraz produkt krajowy brutto. W latach 1995–2021 gospodarka Polski rozwijała się w stosunkowo stałym tempie, a wartość produktu krajowego brutto wzrosła realnie o prawie 290% w całym okresie. Jednak pomimo tego wzrostu całkowite zużycie energii pierwotnej pozostawało na względnie stałym poziomie około 3800–4600 PJ/rok.
Należy jednak podkreślić, że opisowa analiza zmian zużycia energii pierwotnej w Polsce, uwzględniająca zmiany wybranych wskaźników nie pozwala na identyfikację i ilościowe oszacowanie wpływu wszystkich kluczowych czynników na zmianę badanej wielkości w czasie.
W związku z tym głównym celem badań jest zaproponowanie modelu dekompozycji zużycia energii pierwotnej w Polsce i zastosowanie go do przeprowadzenia analiz obejmujących okres transformacji gospodarczej i energetycznej, w celu ilościowego określenia wpływu zidentyfikowanych czynników na zmianę zużycia energii pierwotnej w latach 1995–2021.
W celu realizacji opisanych badań wykorzystano analizę dekompozycyjną. Opracowano model dekompozycyjny, bazujący na sformułowanej tożsamości dekompozycyjnej. W celu wykonania obliczeń zastosowano formuły matematyczne dwóch metod: uogólnionej metody indeksu Fishera oraz logarytmicznej średniej indeksu Divisia. Uzyskane wyniki wskazują, że największy wpływ na zmianę zużycia energii pierwotnej w badanym okresie miały dwa efekty, tj. popytowy oraz energochłonności.
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