Hard coal project valuation based on real options approach: multiplicative vs. arithmetic stochastic process
P. W. Saługa 1  
,   J. Kamiński 2  
 
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1
AGH University of Science and Technology, Department of Energy Management, Faculty of Management, Krakow, Poland
2
Mineral & Energy Economy Research Institute, Polish Academy of Sciences, Department of Policy and Strategic Research, Division of Energy Economics, Kraków, Poland
 
Gospodarka Surowcami Mineralnymi – Mineral Resources Management 2016;32(1):25–39
 
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ABSTRACT
Precise valuation of the economic efficiency of risky investment projects in the mineral sector has a direct impact on the range of future investments. Since the mid-90s, a number of enterprises have also been giving increased attention to the valuation of managerial flexibility that cannot normally be estimated with classical discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. This has been the result of a development in the real options analysis (ROA) and the simplification of its algorithms, most of which have been achieved through: incorporating lattice models; introducing a single uncertain project parameter (gross present value, PV) as an underlying instrument; assuming that the underlying asset follows the multiplicative stochastic process; introducing the ‘marketed asset disclaimer’ (MAD) assumption. Unfortunately, in most cases, models constructed on the abovementioned assumptions and modifications are not consistent with real projects. Some analysts recognize that project PVs might not follow the multiplicative process, which could have a direct impact on the project’s value. In order to improve the MAD approach, the paper proposes a modified model where the multiplicative tree is replaced with an additive one. In addition, methods of ‘additive volatility’ calculation and ‘dividend’ adjustments were suggested.
METADATA IN OTHER LANGUAGES:
Polish
Wycena projektu węglowego z wykorzystaniem analizy opcji rzeczowych w schemacie iloczynowego i arytmetycznego procesu stochastycznego
górniczy projekt inwestycyjny, wycena projektu, opcje rzeczowe, proces stochastyczny
Wycena efektywności ekonomicznej projektów inwestycyjnych w sektorze surowców mineralnych – charakteryzujących się zazwyczaj wysokim poziomem ryzyka – bezpośrednio wpływa na podejmowanie decyzji w zakresie realizacji przyszłych inwestycji. W ostatnich latach coraz większa liczba spółek dostrzega – w odniesieniu do dylematów rozstrzygania procesów decyzyjnych – znaczenie możliwości elastycznego reagowania menadżerów na zmiany zachodzące w otoczeniu przedsiębiorstw i w nich samych (elastyczność decyzyjna). Znaczenie to wyraża się w konkretnych kwotach pieniężnych – niestety, stosowana powszechnie w procesach wyceny przedsięwzięć analiza zdyskontowanych przepływów pieniężnych (DCF) oszacowania wartości elastyczności decyzyjnej nie umożliwia. Wycenę taką umożliwia natomiast zespół technik występujących w obrębie tzw. analizy opcji rzeczowych (real options analysis, ROA) [...].
 
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