ORIGINAL PAPER
Mineral investment risk assessment of host countries based on a cloud matter-element model
1
University of Science and Technology Beijing, China
2
Shandong Gold Group Co., Ltd., Jinan, China
3
Sanshandao Gold Mine, Shandong Gold Group Mining (Laizhou) Co., Ltd., Yantai, China
Submission date: 2023-05-30
Final revision date: 2023-07-30
Acceptance date: 2023-09-28
Publication date: 2023-12-12
Gospodarka Surowcami Mineralnymi – Mineral Resources Management 2023;39(4):23-48
KEYWORDS
TOPICS
ABSTRACT
The rapid development of the global economy has led to an increasing demand for resources. The disparity between the supply and demand of resources continues to be prominent and shows a situation of short supply. Resource investment projects with large amounts and long construction periods face many risks due to various unpredictable factors. Cultural, legal, economic and other environments vary between different countries. Therefore, comprehensive risk identification, understanding, evaluation, and analysis are important prerequisites for the success of mineral investment. In this paper, the risk of mineral resources investment in host countries is identified. A risk evaluation index system is established to objectively evaluate the risk environment of the host country. The risk evaluation index system includes four first-level indexes: political and legal risk, social and cultural risk, economic and financial risk, and natural risk. The subjective weight was determined by sending questionnaires to experts and scholars in the industry and conducting data processing. The entropy method was used to determine the objective weight. Finally, the subjective weight and the objective weight were combined to obtain a group of scientific and accurate combined weights. The matter-element theory was introduced into the cloud model and a risk assessment model based on the cloud matter-element theory was constructed with comprehensive consideration of the fuzziness and randomness of risks. Eight countries with relatively rich mineral resources were taken as cases to verify the model application. The research results provide a theoretical basis and decision-making methods for mineral enterprise investment.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
This research was supported by the National Key R&D Program of China (no. 3592022YFC2903905) and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (no. 52074022)
METADATA IN OTHER LANGUAGES:
Polish
Ocena ryzyka inwestycji w minerały w krajach przyjmujących w oparciu o model chmury materii i pierwiastka
inwestycje w surowce mineralne, model materii-chmury, ryzyko inwestycyjne, ocena ryzyka
Szybki rozwój gospodarki światowej doprowadził do rosnącego zapotrzebowania na surowce. Rozbieżność między podażą a popytem na zasoby jest w dalszym ciągu wyraźna i świadczy o niedoborze podaży. Projekty inwestycyjne dotyczące zasobów, obejmujące duże kwoty i długie okresy budowy, są narażone na wiele zagrożeń ze względu na różne nieprzewidywalne czynniki. Środowiska kulturowe, prawne, gospodarcze i inne różnią się w poszczególnych krajach. Dlatego kompleksowa identyfikacja, zrozumienie, ocena i analiza ryzyka są ważnymi warunkami wstępnymi powodzenia inwestycji w surowce mineralne. W artykule zidentyfikowano ryzyko inwestycji w surowce mineralne w krajach przyjmujących. Ustanawia się system wskaźników oceny ryzyka w celu obiektywnej oceny środowiska ryzyka w kraju przyjmującym. System wskaźników oceny ryzyka obejmuje cztery wskaźniki pierwszego stopnia: ryzyko polityczne i prawne, ryzyko społeczne i kulturowe, ryzyko ekonomiczne i finansowe oraz ryzyko naturalne. Subiektywna waga została określona poprzez wysyłanie kwestionariuszy do ekspertów i naukowców z branży oraz przeprowadzenie przetwarzania danych. Do wyznaczenia wagi obiektywnej wykorzystano metodę entropii. Na koniec połączono wagę subiektywną i wagę obiektywną, aby uzyskać grupę naukowych i dokładnych połączonych wag. Teoria elementów materii została wprowadzona do modelu chmury, a model oceny ryzyka oparty na teorii elementów materii chmury został skonstruowany z kompleksowym uwzględnieniem rozmytości i losowości ryzyka. Do weryfikacji zastosowania modelu wzięto osiem krajów o stosunkowo bogatych zasobach mineralnych. Wyniki badań zapewniają podstawy teoretyczne i metody podejmowania decyzji w zakresie inwestycji przedsiębiorstw z branży wydobywczej.
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